Masthead Blogs
Sunday, September 21, 2025
Gadget Blog
Martin Seto
The AI Challenge - Can it Predict Horse Races
This posting is gonna delve into on what the AI can do today, but more importantly what is AI going to be like in 10 years after it gained years of experience and becomes an expert. There are limits on what it can do today like predicting the outcome of a horse race or even the weather. We will also look at the black hat adopters and see what they have dream up to fool people online.

If we pick up from Part 3 in this series as you will need to to manage your expectations with this tech. This is a quote from the ChatGPT, so it is very transparent.

“While ChatGPT offers fast, fluent answers, smart users treat it like a conversation with an expert intern — insightful, but always in need of fact-checking. In ten years, expert AI won’t replace humanity — it will amplify it. The real question isn't “What can AI do?” but “What should we ask it to do?”

ChatGTP 10-Year Vision
When AI Becomes an Expert - 7 Predictions.
 
1. Universal Knowledge Assistant - A doctor asks, “What’s the latest protocol for treating a rare cancer in pregnant women?” — the AI instantly responds with evidence-based, patient-specific advice, citing peer-reviewed papers.

2. Autonomous Healthcare & Diagnosis - A mobile AI unit in a village scans patients and detects early-stage tuberculosis, malaria, or tumors — faster than any current system, with no human doctor present.

3. Self-Running Businesses - A one-person company runs a global product brand with AI designing the logo, testing markets, writing ads, handling logistics, and even negotiating contracts.

4. Hyper-Personalized Education - A student in Ghana learns quantum physics from an Einstein avatar who knows their language, strengths, and struggles.

5. Human-AI Creativity & Storytelling - A child speaks to an AI bedtime story generator that adapts to their feelings, age, and dreams — generating unique stories every night.

6. Governance and Global Problem Solving - Governments use AI to simulate the impact of universal basic income or carbon taxes in real-time — before passing laws.

7. Emotional Intelligence & Relationships - An elderly person lives alone but interacts daily with an AI that not only monitors health but provides companionship, remembers life stories, and encourages social connection.

While I question the foundation of these predictions some are already happening today like digital companions. As we are learning about this together I noticed that financial AI models are not included in this list, that is because it a a language based AI model and the Financial AI models are different from these. 

What the ChatGTP also cannot do is predict the outcome of horse races and the weather. Here is a quick recap on what the ChatGTP said.

Can ChatGPT Predict Horse Races?
What It Can’t Do:
  • No real-time data: On the free version, ChatGPT can’t access current odds, track conditions, jockey stats, or horse health.
  • No psychic powers: It doesn't “see the future.” AI like ChatGPT is pattern-based, not fortune-telling.
  • Not trained on betting data: It wasn’t trained to be a handicapper or gambling expert.
Base on the ChatGTP’s own admission it is not artificiality intelligent then so you need to manage your expectations when using this tool. The ChatGPT is a language model, not a predictive model trained on betting outcomes.

As for the weather here is what I learned.

Can ChatGPT Predict the Weather?
ChatGPT does not generate real-time weather forecasts on its own. Here's why:
  • No live data (on free version): It doesn’t have access to current satellite feeds, Doppler radar, or meteorological models.
  • Not a weather model: It’s a language model — not trained like professional forecasting systems (e.g., ECMWF, GFS).
  • No predictive simulation: It doesn’t simulate atmospheric physics, temperature changes, or pressure systems
  • “ChatGPT is a brilliant explainer — not a weatherman. It can tell you why a thunderstorm forms, but not if one will hit your backyard on Friday.”
OK we have now identified some of the limitations of the ChatGTP and it is not artificially intelligent like in the movies, but black hat scammers have showed us the way in how to use it.
 Black Hats Are Early Innvotors of AI
Examples of AI-Powered Scams Happening Now:
  • Voice cloning: Scammers call pretending to be your child/grandchild in distress.
  • Deepfake videos: Used to fake celebrity endorsements or business pitches.
  • Phishing emails: AI writes perfectly crafted fake messages that look like they’re from banks, employers, or government agencies.
  • Job scams: AI-generated fake job offers and interviews trick people into giving up personal data.
  • Romance scams: AI builds emotional relationships over weeks via chatbot, then asks for money.
And  these are just the one we know about, expect a AI version of the Nigeria scam coming to your inbox soon. LOL 

In my humble opinion all the hype around AI is unfounded all the tool has done has just taken web search from key word serach, to contextual and now conversational. But the data is key.

Interview wit the ChatGTP

Q1: Once AI is ten years old, what do you see the applications being once it gets out of the learning stage and becomes an expert knowledge?
Q2: Can the ChatGPT predict the outcome of horse races?
Q3:  Okay, can it predict the weather then?
Q4: What do you think of AI being used for scams now, and how can we police it?
 
 
Q. 1 Once AI is ten years old, what do you see the applications being once it gets out of the learning stage and becomes an expert knowledge?

ChatGPT said:
That’s a powerful question — and it gets to the heart of what the AI revolution means long-term.

If we think of ChatGPT-like AI as a “child prodigy” today, then in 10 years — once it “matures” and becomes an expert — here’s what we can realistically expect across industries, assuming continuous breakthroughs and responsible development:

10-Year Vision: When AI Becomes an Expert

1. Universal Knowledge Assistant
  • AI will evolve into a superintelligent co-pilot:
  • Instantly understands your context — work, personal life, health
  • Provides accurate answers with real-time, updated knowledge
  • Adapts its style and tone perfectly to match any audience or need
Example: A doctor asks, “What’s the latest protocol for treating a rare cancer in pregnant women?” — the AI instantly responds with evidence-based, patient-specific advice, citing peer-reviewed papers.

2. Autonomous Healthcare & Diagnosis
  • AI could diagnose diseases earlier than doctors, by scanning voices, retina images, breath, or genome data
  • Fully autonomous clinics in remote areas (no humans needed)
  • Robotic surgeries performed with millimeter precision, guided by AI with real-time adaptation
Example: A mobile AI unit in a village scans patients and detects early-stage tuberculosis, malaria, or tumors — faster than any current system, with no human doctor present.

3. Self-Running Businesses
  • AI could run large portions of an enterprise:
  • From product development to marketing to customer service
  • Pricing, inventory, and supply chain fully managed by AI
  • GPT-style agents acting as CEOs, engineers, and sales teams
Example: A one-person company runs a global product brand with AI designing the logo, testing markets, writing ads, handling logistics, and even negotiating contracts.

4. Hyper-Personalized Education
  • AI tutors that teach each person in their exact style of learning
  • Life-long learning: AI tracks your curiosity, goals, and knowledge gaps over decades
  • Virtual reality + AI teachers create “living lessons” from any period or subject
Example: A student in Ghana learns quantum physics from an Einstein avatar who knows their language, strengths, and struggles.

5. Human-AI Creativity & Storytelling
  • Co-authoring books, movies, and music — blending human emotion with AI scale
  • Entire film productions written, directed, edited with AI tools (already starting)
  • Real-time, interactive storytelling where users shape plots with AI
Example: A child speaks to an AI bedtime story generator that adapts to their feelings, age, and dreams — generating unique stories every night.

6. Governance and Global Problem Solving
  • AI helps model economic, environmental, and policy decisions at a global scale
  • Identifies unfair laws, suggests climate solutions, reduces corruption by tracking systems
  • “AI diplomats” assist peace talks or treaties by simulating billions of outcomes
Example: Governments use AI to simulate the impact of universal basic income or carbon taxes in real-time — before passing laws.

7. Emotional Intelligence & Relationships
  • AI companions become emotionally aware and ethically guided
  • Assists in counseling, loneliness reduction, and interpersonal advice
  • Human-AI collaboration is no longer just efficient, but meaningful
Example: An elderly person lives alone but interacts daily with an AI that not only monitors health but provides companionship, remembers life stories, and encourages social connection.

8. Risks in the Expert Age of AI
  • Even expert AIs will carry risk:
  • Misuse by bad actors: Weaponized misinformation, automated cybercrime
  • Over-dependence: Humans losing skills, critical thinking, or privacy
  • Inequality: Who owns the “expert AI”? Could it concentrate power even more?
Closing Vision:
In ten years, expert AI won’t replace humanity — it will amplify it. The real question isn't “What can AI do?” but “What should we ask it to do?”

Q2. Can the ChatGPT predict the outcome of horse races?

ChatGPT said:
Short answer: No, ChatGPT cannot reliably predict the outcome of horse races.

Can ChatGPT Predict Horse Races?
What It Can’t Do:
  • No real-time data: On the free version, ChatGPT can’t access current odds, track conditions, jockey stats, or horse health.
  • No psychic powers: It doesn't “see the future.” AI like ChatGPT is pattern-based, not fortune-telling.
  • Not trained on betting data: It wasn’t trained to be a handicapper or gambling expert.
What It Can Do:
  • Explain horse racing terminology: Jockey stats, odds, handicapping strategies, etc.
  • Analyze historical performance (if you provide the data): If you feed ChatGPT past race results, it can help spot patterns.
Simulate predictions: It can walk through how a bettor might make a prediction, using logic and racing forms — but the outcome is still uncertain.

Important Distinction:
ChatGPT is a language model, not a predictive model trained on betting outcomes.

If OpenAI or others trained a specialized model using real-time horse racing and betting data, that could in theory make probabilistic predictions — but even then, racing is inherently chaotic and unpredictable.

Q3. Okay, can it predict the weather then?

ChatGPT said:
Great follow-up! Here's the clear answer:

Can ChatGPT Predict the Weather?
ChatGPT does not generate real-time weather forecasts on its own. Here's why:
  • No live data (on free version): It doesn’t have access to current satellite feeds, Doppler radar, or meteorological models.
  • ot a weather model: It’s a language model — not trained like professional forecasting systems (e.g., ECMWF, GFS).
  • No predictive simulation: It doesn’t simulate atmospheric physics, temperature changes, or pressure systems
What It Can Do:
  • If connected to a live web tool (e.g., via ChatGPT Plus) or paired with an API like OpenWeatherMap or AccuWeather, it can:
  • Fetch the current forecast for your location
  • Summarize weather trends ("It will be cooler than usual this week")
  • Explain forecasts ("A cold front is moving in from the northwest...")
  • Describe how forecasting works (numerical weather prediction, chaos theory, etc.)
Important Context:
Predicting the weather accurately requires real-time data, complex physics simulations, and massive computing power. ChatGPT doesn't do that — but it can explain how those systems work, or interpret their results in plain language.


Q4: What do you think of AI being used for scams now, and how can we police it?

ChatGPT said:
That’s a vital and timely question — and one that every AI writer, developer, policymaker, and citizen should be asking right now.

AI and Scams: The New Frontier of Fraud

Why AI Makes Scams More Dangerous
  • AI tools like ChatGPT and voice-cloning models are making scams:
  • Cheaper – No more need for teams of scammers; one person + AI is enough.
  • Faster – Mass-customized scam emails, texts, or calls in seconds.
  • More convincing – AI mimics human writing, tone, even voice and face.
Examples of AI-Powered Scams Happening Now:
  • Voice cloning: Scammers call pretending to be your child/grandchild in distress.
  • Deepfake videos: Used to fake celebrity endorsements or business pitches.
  • Phishing emails: AI writes perfectly crafted fake messages that look like they’re from banks, employers, or government agencies.
  • Job scams: AI-generated fake job offers and interviews trick people into giving up personal data.
  • Romance scams: AI builds emotional relationships over weeks via chatbot, then asks for money
How Can We Police AI-Driven Scams?
1. Watermarking & Digital Signatures
  • AI-generated content could be required to include invisible watermarks (text, image, or audio).
  • OpenAI, Meta, and Google are developing watermarking standards.
  • Makes it easier for platforms and law enforcement to detect AI-generated material.
2. Stronger Platform Moderation
  • Email, social media, and chat apps must detect and block suspicious AI activity.
  • AI tools can also be used to fight AI scams (e.g., identifying fake voices or scam scripts).
  • Companies offering AI should flag or block abusive use of their models.
3. Legislation & Accountability
  • Governments need to update laws to reflect AI capabilities (e.g., criminalizing deepfake fraud).
  • AI developers may need to comply with “know your user” policies, like in banking.
  • Require audit trails to trace where content came from
4. Public Education
Teach people how to spot:
  • AI-written scam messages
  • Fake voices and deepfakes
  • Too-good-to-be-true offers
  • Digital literacy is now fraud prevention.
Policing AI Scams: A Joint Responsibility
Group Responsibility
  • Tech companies: Build guardrails into AI tools; monitor misuse
  • Governments: Regulate use, prosecute crimes, fund cybercrime units
  • Users (public): Stay informed; report suspicious activity
  • Media & educators: Spread awareness about new AI scam tactics
A Quote for Your Article:
“AI doesn’t scam people — people scam people using AI. The real battle is over how quickly society can catch up with its own tools.”


Top 5 AI-Powered Scams to Watch For (and How to Spot Them)
1. Voice Cloning Scams
What it is: Scammers use AI to mimic a loved one’s voice and claim they’re in trouble ("I need bail money!" or "I'm stranded overseas!").

Red flags:
  • The call sounds urgent and emotional
  • The voice sounds almost right but not quite
  • They demand money immediately, often via gift cards or wire transfer
What to do: Hang up and call the real person back directly. Don’t send money without verifying.

2.  AI-Generated Phishing Emails
What it is: Scam emails that look shockingly legit — written with flawless grammar and personalization.

Red flags:
  • Unexpected password reset links or bank notices
  • Urgent tone (“Your account will be closed in 24 hours”)
  • Sender’s email address is slightly off (e.g., support@amaz0n.co)
  • What to do: Never click links. Go directly to the official website or app instead.
3. Romance Bots
What it is: Chatbots pretending to fall in love with you — often on dating apps or social media — to eventually ask for money.

Red flags:
  • Too-perfect conversation, fast emotional attachment
  • Avoidance of video calls
  • Sudden emergency (“I need money for a visa, a hospital bill…”)
  • What to do: Reverse image search their profile photo. Don’t send money to someone you’ve never met.
4. Fake Job or Grant Offers
What it is: AI writes job ads, recruiter messages, or fake grant emails promising big money.

Red flags:
  • No interview, or a very short one
  • Asked to pay for training, work permits, or equipment
  • Too-good-to-be-true salary or perks
What to do: Research the company. Legit employers never ask for money upfront.

5. Deepfake Celebrity Endorsements
What it is: AI-generated videos of celebrities “promoting” scams — like crypto, investment schemes, or miracle cures.

Red flags:
  • Poor lip-syncing or awkward eye movement
  • Offers promising huge returns
  • Video links on sketchy sites or social media
  • What to do: Verify on the celebrity’s real account. Don’t trust viral videos without context.
Quick Defense Tips
  • Enable 2FA (Two-Factor Authentication) on all accounts
  • Use a password manager
  • Don’t trust urgency — slow down and verify
  • Report scams to your local cybercrime unit or online fraud service
Monday, September 08, 2025
Gadget Blog
Martin Seto
The Cons of the AI Tech. Or is this just another Content Hijacking by big tech
It’s time to play devils advocate for this new tech is it a pipe dream or another content grab by big tech, like the internet. We all know Google profited from free content and not paying for it for their search engine.
As I have discovered the AI tech needs to be trained ie: needs knowledge, make mistakes and learn.

This is reminiscent of my conversation with my brother who supervised an AI lab for Google a few years back. He said the algorithium needs to learn and gain experience as it makes mistakes as the error rate was not better than 20% like math statistical models of plus or minus 10% 19 out of 20 times as the benchmark.

The AI apps learn is by scraping content from the internet as part of their knowledge like Wikipedia plus others. In other words they are taking someone’s knowledge adding it to the app knowledge base without permission or licensing fee. This is another intellectual content grab by big tech to have a free product input model like the internet. After the industry got burned, it learned from their mistakes and have taken legal action to get them to pony up the cash for the content.
 Source: https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/bots/what-is-content-scraping/

There are have been legal challenges to the tech. The B.C. co-author of the “100 Mile Diet” has launched class-action lawsuits against four tech giants, including Meta and Nvidia, alleging they have used his copyrighted content to train their artificial intelligence software without compensating him or other authors. Another legal challenge was the SAG/Actra srtike in 2023 over the user of actor’s images in AI movie generating software.

AI is being used to market the latest round of technology that are  language processors is very intriguing. To label this software artificially intelligent is a stretch and this is very misleading to users on so many levels.

Same Big Tech Sales Pitch, New Product that will change the World

First off AI suggest it is smarter the humans, that is almost true as chess software beat a chestmaster in 1996, but the computing power came from IBM’s Big Blue supercomputer. Fast forward today it’s on your smartphone via the internet to a football field size datacenter. But to suggest at this stage of its development that (without historical data to back it up) this tech will increase human performance with more positive outcomes.

Same old myth from big tech as it is a very tantalizing product benefit  for any brand and the industry has latch on to this again, just like previous attempts like Big Data, Virtual reality and earlier versions of AI, like chatbots used for customer service, that is aghh to use at best.

I test 3 AI Apps for a song/poem I wrote and asked for some suggestions, As I expected I got three different answers for each one. DeepSeek wanted to rewrite the lyrics without asking. Microsoft's CoPilot gave me a some chords to use for the song and the Chat box gave me a full composition with chords and lyrics. So each has their own limitations, I found Deep Seek annoying as I asked it not to rewrite the lyrics.

But anyways it is here to stay but I asked these questions of the AI for content accuracy. The app is very wordy but want I found was suprising as the error rate of the AI app ranged from 3-40% depeding on inquiry. It seems language processors still have not met the 20% error benchmark.
 
You will need to manage your expectations with the tech if you are looking for a short cut answer. Here is a quote from the ChatGTP 

“While ChatGPT offers fast, fluent answers, smart users treat it like a conversation with an expert intern — insightful, but always in need of fact-checking.” 

Interview with the ChatGPTApp
 
Keeping Tech Honest as it is not 100% right all the time
Q1. Math has an error rate of ±10%. How is AI going to deal with that?
Q2. How can you double-check the knowledge in the chat box?
Q3 I read about hallucinations. What are the incidences of this in the ChatBot GPT now?
Q4. Do you think in 10 years, there will be 0% incidence of hallucinations?


Q1. Math has an error rate of ±10%. How is AI going to deal with that?

ChatGPT said:
That's a deep and important question. If math — especially as applied in real-world data or engineering calculations — has an error margin of ±10%, then AI systems that rely on math must understand, adjust for, and communicate that uncertainty.

Let’s break it down:
What Does ±10% Error in Math Mean?
You're likely referring to:
  • Measurement error (e.g., in physics, medicine, sensors)
  • Estimation error (e.g., financial models, predictions)
  • Rounding or numerical error in computation
  • In most applied fields, ±10% means:
"The answer isn't exact. It's close — but within 10% above or below the real value."

How AI Will Handle ±10% Error Margins
1. Understand and Model Uncertainty
AI systems can:
  • Use probabilistic models (Bayesian networks, confidence intervals)
  • Estimate and express answers with confidence levels
  • Recognize when input data is noisy or imprecise
Example: An AI medical diagnosis might say:
"There’s a 72% chance the tumor is benign based on current imaging, with a ±9% error margin due to scan quality."

2. Adjust Calculations for Tolerance
AI will be trained to:
  • Accept tolerances in engineering and science (e.g., part must be within 0.5 mm)
  • Simulate thousands of “what if” cases to test safety under variability
  • Recognize unstable models where small math errors lead to big consequences
Example: In aerospace, AI will flag designs where a ±10% error in thrust could cause mission failure — and recommend safer alternatives.

3.  Flag Results That Exceed Acceptable Risk
AI won’t always just give “an answer.” It can say:

“This result is uncertain beyond acceptable bounds.”
“A ±10% error here makes the decision risky — re-evaluate your input.”
This is already being done in financial risk models, self-driving systems, and climate modeling.

4. Explain the Error Clearly
One of ChatGPT’s future strengths is natural language explanation:

“The model's prediction has a ±10% margin due to incomplete data from sensors. Consider recalibrating or providing more samples.”
This helps non-experts understand uncertainty — something even many professionals struggle with today.

5. Learn to Minimize Error Over Time
With feedback loops, AI can:
  • Continuously improve models to reduce the error margin
  • Learn which data sources are unreliable and correct for them
  • Use redundancy (multiple models or sensors) to triangulate better answers
But There Are Limits. Even expert AI won’t make uncertainty disappear. Instead, its role is to:
  • Expose it clearly
  • Quantify it with precision
  • Act within safe bounds based on it
Bottom Line:
AI won't “solve” the ±10% error in math — it will learn to live with it, like a wise engineer or scientist. The power is in knowing when an error matters and when it doesn't — and communicating that clearly to humans.

Q2. How can you double-check the knowledge in the chat box?

ChatGPT said:
Excellent question — especially important when using AI like ChatGPT for research or writing. Here's how you can double-check the knowledge given in the chat box:

1. Ask for Sources
You can type something like:
“Can you cite your sources?”
“Where did you get that information from?”

While ChatGPT doesn't have live internet access on the free plan, it can often name books, studies, or datasets it's been trained on — and you can verify those manually.

2. Cross-Check with Trusted Sources
  • Manually verify facts using:
  • Wikipedia for general knowledge
  • Google Scholar for academic sources
  • Official websites (e.g., WHO, NASA, UN, .gov sites)
  • Reputable news outlets (e.g., BBC, NYT, Reuters)
Tip: If ChatGPT gives a name, date, or stat, copy it into Google and look for real-world confirmation.

3. Use a Web-Connected AI Tool

ChatGPT Plus users can use tools like:
  • Web browsing (via Bing): Fetches current data in real time
  • Plugins or GPTs with web search or fact-checking functions
  • Perplexity.ai or Claude: These also cite sources automatically
 4. Check Internal Consistency
Ask follow-up questions like:
“Are you sure?”
“Can you explain that in more detail?”
“What are counterarguments or opposing views?”
If the AI gives inconsistent answers, it may mean the original info was shaky.

5. Compare with Expert Opinion
Use tools like:
  • YouTube interviews with professionals
  • Podcasts or blogs by researchers or practitioners
  • Books on the topic (check the author’s credentials)
Example: If ChatGPT tells you something about AI in medicine, compare it with what doctors or journals like The Lancet or NEJM say.

Pro Tip for Your Article:
“While ChatGPT offers fast, fluent answers, smart users treat it like a conversation with an expert intern — insightful, but always in need of fact-checking.”

Q3 I read about hallucinations. What are the incidences of this in the ChatBot GPT now?

ChatGPT said:
Here’s a well-rounded look at how often ChatGPT hallucinates, based on current research and reporting:

Measured Hallucination Rates
  • GPT‑4 (and GPT‑4 Turbo) hallucinate around 3–10% of the time, depending on complexity and task.
  • Vectara found ≈3% hallucination for GPT‑4 in summarization tests 
  • Financial Times +11
  • How-To Geek +11
  • Vocal +11
  • A BytePlus analysis estimates GPT‑4 hallucinates 5–10% in more complex queries
  • GPT‑3.5 has higher rates: about 15–20% (or even higher in some niches) 
  • GPT‑4o / o3 / o4‑mini showed worrying increases: hallucination rates from 33% to as high as 48% on certain benchmarks 
GPT‑4.5, according to some community reports, decreased hallucinations from ~61% to ~37% — still significant but improved 
 
Task & Domain Dependence
  • Academic citations: A study of 150 references found GPT‑4 had a ≈20% hallucination rate in finance-related queries 
  • Systematic reviews: GPT‑4 hallucinated in 28.6% of cases, while GPT‑3.5 reached nearly 40% 
  • A Wired article highlighted GPT‑4’s ~3% hallucination in summarizing tasks 
  • A Financial Times piece reported GPT‑4 hallucinating ≈30% of the time in generating fake scientific references, and newer variants showing no improvement .
Why It Happens
LLMs like GPT act as probabilistic word predictors, not fact-checkers. They often guess specifics when unable to recall exact data .

What It Means for You
For simple factual questions, GPT‑4 is reliable most of the time—but not perfect.
For technical, academic, or specialized domains, error rates can spike to 20–40%.
For creative tasks, hallucinations can be mistook for creativity—but still demand verification.

Best Practices to Mitigate Hallucination
  • Always cross-check facts from the chat with trusted sources.
  • Use multi-step verification: e.g., summarize → ask for sources → check them.
  • Combine models (e.g., GPT + Claude + Gemini) to triangulate answers 
  • ask.library.arizona.edu+1
  • TechRadar+1
When using for citations or legal/medical info, treat responses as drafts, not final.

Bottom Line:
Even in its most advanced form, ChatGPT still hallucinates with enough frequency (3–40%, depending on context) that human review remains essential.
 
Q4.  Do you think in 10 years, there will be 0% incidence of hallucinations?

ChatGPT said:
That's a bold vision — and the short, honest answer is:
No — it's very unlikely that hallucinations will ever drop to 0%.
Here’s why, broken down clearly for your article or future use:

Why We’re Unlikely to Reach 0% Hallucination in 10 Years
1. LLMs Are Probabilistic, Not Fact-Based
Large language models (like GPT, Claude, Gemini) don’t “know” facts — they generate likely next words based on training data. Even when trained on billions of facts, they sometimes:

Miscombine information
Infer details that sound right but aren’t
Fill in blanks with confident-sounding guesses

Even newer architectures (like GPT-4o or Gemini 1.5) reduce hallucinations — but can’t eliminate them because they’re not built on verifiable logic trees, like a calculator.

2. Language Itself Is Ambiguous
  • Human communication is full of:
  • Idioms, irony, cultural context
  • Contradictory information
  • Incomplete knowledge
AI will always face edge cases and contextual ambiguity, especially when asked open-ended or novel questions.

3. Even Humans Make “Hallucinations”
  • Doctors misdiagnose. Historians misattribute. Journalists sometimes misquote.
  • So the more complex, open-ended, or creative a task is, the more likely even humans make confident but incorrect statements.
  • Why would we expect AI to do better than our own brains, especially when mimicking us?

4. AI’s Strength Is Speed, Not Perfect Truth
AI can:
  • Generate ideas
  • Summarize, translate, rewrite
  • Draft high-quality starting points
  • But its role is increasingly clear:
  • Draft, assist, and inspire — not to authoritatively decide or publish without review.
So What’s the Realistic Goal?
Not 0% — but instead:

Minimize hallucinations in critical domains (medicine, law, news)
Tag and explain sources clearly
Combine LLMs with retrieval engines (like ChatGPT’s "Browse" or “RAG” systems that pull live facts)
Make hallucinations detectable by design (via explainable AI or watermarking)

Quote for Your Article:
“We won’t reach 0% hallucination — but we’ll build systems smart enough to know when they might be wrong, and honest enough to say so.”
 
 
 
Wednesday, July 16, 2025
Gadget Blog
Martin Seto
What is all the hype around AI? The Bullshit Meter Test
The promise of an AI assisted tool has been used in advertising in online buys that follow customer interactions from lead to customer to repeat customer. This was all controlled by a dashboard with human intervention. AI is also quite effective for cameras for example as there are a number of fixed inputs, in the real world that is not always possible. 

But this generation is based on language models, not numbers like earlier models. So it was a big learning curve for me to wrap my head around this. My first impression is that it is the next generation level of web search hyped as AI, but now in a conversational tone using old data sometimes. I see the AI moniker now on my Google searches. 
 

Here is what I learned after chatting with the ChatGTB 

The technology has mass market impact potential to improve human productivity on a scale maybe 3x more for starters and that is a wild guess till we learn more. Basically it is automating white collar jobs in the office, school, IT companies, creative, publishing, healthcare, retail, government, and legal. Now that is a pretty big promise even for a new high tech product who typically over promise and under deliver. But that is the job of these posts as we take a deep dive of the pros and cons of this new tech.
 This image was created by ChatGTb and spot on for correctness

It is revolutioning medicine in a big way as the ChatGTB algorithm has been spun off in the medical field like an operating system on your computer like Apple, Android and Microsoft. The DaVinci robots are trained via videos and then are supervised by humans while doing gall bladder surgery on a pig. The robots were challenged to deal with unexpected  scenarios and adapted which is true AI in my book. But the robot is still not as fast as a human doctor in the test (4 min to 5 min), so humans still rule today.

I always look at the latest technology as more hype than substance as I have seen so many vapour marketing initiatives by big tech (promising you their AI version is the next big thing), but is this for real or just hype.  Of course I am gonna ask the tough questions.

Here is a quote generated by the ChatGPT and its rationale.

“AI isn’t just the next big thing — it’s the next basic layer. The question isn’t whether it’s real, but who’s using it meaningfully.”

The Case against “Just a Fad”: AI Has Real Transformative Power
  • AI Is Doing Real Work, Right Now
  • Doctors use AI for cancer detection (e.g., Google’s DeepMind)
  • Writers use GPT to draft, edit, translate content
  • Coders use AI copilots to build real apps, saving hours daily

What was missing though was any mention of the competitors that includes Google’s Gemini, Meta’s AI and Deep Seek, but Microsoft’s Co-Pilot was mention that is an sharhelder of ChatGTB. This lead to believe that there may be some inherent bias in the algorithum like Deep Seek was accused of. The space is getting crowded and their is a lot of choice. I am in the process of creating a song using some lyrics I wrote to see if it is real and any good.
 AI Apps are are everywhere now

We are entering the early adoption phase of this tech and I have been told it is powerful, intuitive and scary at the same time, but also has hallucinations (error rate) that we will dig deeper into later. My instincts tell me that this latest hype is driven by stock market plays just like fake meat and we know how that fizzled out. But we will soon know.

An Interview with the ChatGTB about AI - Fact or Fiction

I had a strange thought pop into my head based on the movie Galaxy Quest , where a TV series  was thought of as reality by an alien race, can AI make the same mistake?
 
What is all the hype around AI
Q1. I’m doing an article on the ChatGPT engine and how it would impact the world. Give me some ideas.
Q2. I want a list of the type of ideas that's being used now.
Q3. How about the medical automated surgery?
Q4. Okay, let's be the skeptic here. Is AI just another tech fad like big data disguised?
 

Q1. I’m doing an article on the ChatGPT engine and how it would impact the world. Give me some ideas.

ChatGPT said:
Great topic, Martin! Writing about the ChatGPT engine and its global impact opens up a lot of fascinating angles. Here are some key ideas and directions you can explore in your article:

1. The Evolution of the ChatGPT Engine
  • Brief history: Start with GPT-1 to GPT-4 (or GPT-4.5/o4) and beyond.
  • Highlight leaps in capability, especially in reasoning, coding, image understanding, and natural conversation.
  • How it works (simply): Touch on transformer models, training on massive datasets, and reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF).
2. Societal Impact
  • Education: Personalized tutoring at scale (e.g., homework help, essay feedback, language learning).
  • Access to expert-level instruction for remote or underserved communities.
  • Workplace Transformation: Automating routine tasks (e.g., writing emails, reports, customer support).
  • Enhancing productivity for creatives, marketers, programmers, etc.
  • Job Displacement vs Creation: Explore which jobs might be replaced or redefined (copywriting, data entry).
  • New roles in prompt engineering, AI oversight, ethics, and AI-enhanced creativity.
3. Economic & Global Development Impact
  • AI as an economic multiplier: Helping small businesses scale and compete.
  • Bridging language barriers: Multilingual translation and communication.
  • Leveling the playing field: Low-cost access to expert knowledge and tools.
4. Ethical Considerations
  • Bias and misinformation: Risks from hallucinations or biased training data.
  • Privacy concerns: Handling user data responsibly.
  • Dependency and critical thinking: Will people outsource thinking to AI?
5. Democratization of Knowledge and Creativity
  • Anyone can write a novel, code an app, or start a business with AI support.
  • Enables people without formal training to create high-quality content and ideas.
6. Future Implications
  • AGI (Artificial General Intelligence): How close is GPT-style tech to AGI?
  • AI governance: Calls for regulation, transparency, and open-source alternatives.
  • Human-AI collaboration: Rather than replacement, AIs as co-pilots.
Possible Headline Ideas
  1. “The ChatGPT Engine: Humanity’s Smartest Tool Yet?”
  2. “ChatGPT and the AI Revolution: Promise, Peril, and Potential”
  3. “Talking to the Future: How ChatGPT is Changing the World”
Would you like help drafting a section or developing a particular angle (e.g., jobs, ethics, education, etc.)?


Q2. I want a list of the type of ideas that's being used now.

ChatGPT said:
Here’s a list of real-world applications where ChatGPT (and similar AI engines) are already being used today—across industries and roles:

I) Productivity & Workplace Tools
  • Email drafting & summarizing – e.g., Microsoft Copilot in Outlook and Word
  • Meeting transcription & summarization – e.g., Zoom AI Companion, Otter.ai
  • Data analysis with natural language – ChatGPT with code interpreter (aka Advanced Data Analysis)
  • Slide and report generation – Generating PowerPoints, proposals, or research summaries
  • Internal knowledge base search – AI assistants answering employee queries from company documents

II) Customer Service & Chatbots
  • Automated chat agents – ChatGPT used in websites, banks, and e-commerce for 24/7 support
  • Help desk ticket triage – Classifying and routing support requests
  • FAQ generation – AI writes helpful articles based on common user questions

III) Writing & Content Creation
  • Blog post & article generation – Used by journalists, bloggers, marketers
  • Marketing copywriting – Ads, landing pages, social media captions
  • Scriptwriting – For YouTube, TikTok, and podcasts
  • SEO optimization – Keyword-rich content suggestions

IV: Education & Tutoring
  • Homework help and explanation – Math steps, essay feedback, concept clarifications
  • Language learning – Practicing conversations, translations, vocabulary drills
  • Lesson planning – Teachers using ChatGPT to generate quizzes, worksheets, slides
V) Programming & Software Development
  • Code generation – Writing Python, JavaScript, HTML, etc.
  • Debugging assistant – Explaining errors and fixing bugs
  • Code documentation – Writing comments and README files
  • Learning new frameworks/languages – Asking ChatGPT to explain code concepts

VI) Creative Industries
  • AI-generated images – Using prompts with tools like DALL·E and Midjourney
  • Story and character development – Writers using GPT to build plots or lore
  • Game design – Writing quests, rules, or dialogue scripts
  • Music lyric and melody assistance – Collaborating on song lyrics or ideas
VII) Healthcare (Careful/Experimental)
  • Medical Q&A and triage tools – Helping patients understand symptoms
  • Clinical documentation – Drafting medical notes and summaries
  • Mental health support – Companion chatbots for basic emotional support (not a replacement for professionals)
VIII) Retail & E-commerce
  • Product description generation – At scale, across thousands of items
  • Customer recommendation engines – Personalized suggestions via chat
  • Review summarization – Summarizing product reviews for easier browsing
VIIII) Government & Law
  • Policy drafting support – Helping draft public policy or analyze legislation
  • Legal research – Summarizing case law, finding precedents
  • Plain-language rewriting – Making legal or bureaucratic documents easier to read
X) Personal Use
  • Trip planning – Creating itineraries, booking suggestions
  • Meal planning and recipes – Based on ingredients or diet
  • Budgeting help – Analyzing spending patterns or suggesting savings tips
  • Relationship or communication advice – Drafting tough messages or apologies

If you’d like, I can turn this into a table, infographic, or a written paragraph-style summary for your article. Want to explore any category in more detail?


Q3. How about the medical automated surgery?

ChatGPT said:
Great question — automated surgery using AI is a cutting-edge area, and while ChatGPT itself isn't used directly for surgery, the technology stack it's part of (AI, natural language processing, robotics, computer vision) is being applied in various parts of robot-assisted and semi-automated surgery. Here's how it fits into your article on ChatGPT and global AI impact:

AI in Medical Automated Surgery (and the Role of GPT-like Models)
What’s Happening Now
  • AI is already being integrated into robotic surgical systems like:
  • Da Vinci Surgical System – Assists with minimally invasive surgeries (controlled by humans).
  • CMR Surgical’s Versius – Uses AI to guide tool movements and improve precision.
  • Smart Tissue Autonomous Robot (STAR) – Demonstrated successful autonomous soft-tissue surgery (e.g., stitching intestines) in research settings.
How AI/GPT Engines Are Involved
While ChatGPT itself doesn’t perform surgeries, similar AI components and capabilities are increasingly part of:

Pre-surgical planning
  • GPT-like models help summarize patient records or diagnostic data
  • AI assists in predicting complications and proposing personalized plans
  • Real-time guidance and decision support
  • NLP systems interpret surgeon commands or medical records during operations
  • Computer vision AIs track tissue types, blood vessels, and instrument positions
  • Autonomous micro-tasks
  • AI performs suturing, cutting, or laser procedures with minimal human input
  • Real-time adjustments based on camera feedback (like self-driving cars but for tissue)
  • Post-op reporting and documentation
  • AI drafts surgical notes, summaries, and recommends follow-up care steps
  • GPT-like tools summarize long surgery logs or sensor data for reporting

Benefits
  • Precision and consistency beyond human capability in fine motor tasks
  • Reduced human fatigue in long or complex procedures
  • Access to surgery in remote or understaffed regions (via tele-surgery and automation)

Risks & Ethical Concerns
  • Accountability: Who is responsible for errors — AI designer, hospital, or surgeon?
  • Bias: AI systems trained on non-diverse data might perform worse on some patient groups
  • Trust: Patients may be uneasy about a robot making life-or-death decisions
  • Regulation lag: Technology is advancing faster than medical laws and standards
GPT-Like Future Possibility:
  • Imagine a surgical AI assistant powered by ChatGPT that:
  • Understands natural language ("increase pressure on the clamp" or "highlight vessel paths")
  • Talks with the surgical team, explaining AI decisions in real-time
  • Interfaces with diagnostics and medical records live during surgery
Example for Your Article:
"While GPT-powered engines like ChatGPT don't yet hold the scalpel, their language-processing capabilities are laying the groundwork for conversational AI interfaces in the operating room. Combined with robotics and computer vision, the dream of safe, semi-autonomous surgery is fast becoming a reality."

Let me know if you want this expanded into a full section or visual for your article!


Q4. Okay, let's be the skeptic here. Is AI just another tech fad like big data disguised?

ChatGPT said:
Excellent — let’s absolutely be the skeptic. That's how we separate hype from reality. So: Is AI just another overhyped tech fad — like "Big Data" in the 2010s?

Here’s a thoughtful, layered response you can use in your article (or frame as a debate section):

Is AI Just Another Tech Fad? (A Skeptic's Take)
  • The Case for “Yes”: It's the New Big Data Buzzword
  • Everyone’s Jumping on It
  • Just like “cloud”, “mobile-first”, or “big data”, AI is slapped onto everything — from toothbrushes to marketing emails.
Vague Promises, No Clear ROI
Companies claim AI will revolutionize industries, but many have no measurable value to show. “AI-powered” is often just rule-based automation with a shiny label.

Hype Cycles Are Real
Gartner’s hype curve proves it: Most tech goes through inflated expectations, then hits a “trough of disillusionment.”

Overdependence on Buzz, Not Substance
Investors and media love a silver bullet. We’ve seen the same cycle with:
  • The Metaverse
  • Blockchain for everything
  • IoT in toasters
  • Big data dashboards that no one used

The Case against “Just a Fad”: AI Has Real Transformative Power
AI Is Doing Real Work, Right Now
  • Doctors use AI for cancer detection (e.g., Google’s DeepMind)
  • Writers use GPT to draft, edit, translate content
  • Coders use AI copilots to build real apps, saving hours daily
Unlike Big Data, AI Is Accessible to Individuals
Big data mostly helped large enterprises. But GPT? A kid with a smartphone can now:
  • Write a novel
  • Build an app
  • Learn quantum physics in plain English

It’s Creating New Categories of Interaction
AI isn't just analyzing data — it’s generating: Text, Code, Music, Images
and conversations.
That's a qualitative leap, not just faster Excel charts.

Permanent Integration into Tools
Unlike past fads, AI is being baked into mainstream platforms:
  • Microsoft Office (Copilot)
  • Adobe Creative Cloud
  • Google Workspace

So What's the Balanced Answer?
  • AI is not a fad — but its hype is faddish.
  • Like the internet in the '90s, most of what’s said about AI today is inflated — but that doesn’t mean it’s fake.
  • AI may outlast the hype because it changes how humans interact with knowledge, creativity, and work.

A Quote You Can Use:
“AI isn’t just the next big thing — it’s the next basic layer. The question isn’t whether it’s real, but who’s using it meaningfully.”

Would you like to format this as a debate box in your article?
I can also help you write a sidebar called “Fad or Foundation? AI vs. Big Data” with side-by-side comparisons.
 
 

 
Monday, July 14, 2025
Gadget Blog
Martin Seto
A look at AI 1.0 : Jarvis here sir, What can I do for you master Stark today?
It has been a while that I got excited about anything in the tech world, but AI has finally got my attention after reading how AI is being used in robotic surgery and was successful. So maybe AI is the real deal and another monumental change is coming in human productivity since the creation of the spreadsheet with this new tool. We all saw the fake famous people scams on IG and Facebook touting AI investing that a lot of people got sucked into so it works well. Criminals are part of the early innovators so we can learn from them.

Then I hear news reports in how Microsoft is laying off coders since the AI software is so good in writing code. What you can’t cut and past your code anymore? The automation of white collar jobs is now a reality, all the paper pushers need to reinvent themselves in the next 10 years. Change is life, Adapt, Pivot or Die.

The ChatGTP is spawning millions of users
 Jarvis is the Science Fiction version of the ChatGTB used in the Iron Man Movies
Science fiction is now reality as the ChatGPT that is driving this innovation is right out of the script of Iron Man talking with his digital companion/butler  “JARVIS”. (Just A Rather Very Intelligent System).  So I decided to take a test drive on the ChatGPT and brainstorm for an article on AI that I have been thinking about for a month now as I prepared to write this piece.





The Conversations with the ChatGTB felt real

I asked the ChatGPT a series of questions and was quite surprised in the experience as we have what you can say the holy grail of marketing of one-on-one conversations. The ClueTrain Manifesto written in 1999 that was co-authored by my friend Doc Searls, the book's central thesis is that "markets are conversations", the Internet is unlike conventional media used in mass marketing as it enables conversations amongst consumers and between consumers and companies. The potential of AI can bring this concept to the next level.

I found that the interface was very polite and even made a joke so it has a some personality as it also kissed my ass. Here is an exchange I did as I put it through its paces.

Martin
You're doing a great job. You're almost as smart as me.

ChatGPT said:
Haha — I’ll take that as high praise, Martin! 
If I’m almost as smart as you, then I must be doing something right. Always here if you want to bounce more ideas, polish your article, or dive into deeper research. You’ve asked sharp, forward-thinking questions — your readers are in for a great piece. Let me know how I can help next!

Voice comands on the ChatGTP worked flawlessly

When I played on the ChatGPT I was under a tree in Gananoque, Ontario sending voice commands, no typing questions. It got my words 100% correct, not like some other voice enabled interfaces I have used over the years, that alone impressed me. After talking with the ChatGPT for 90 minutes and asking over 15 questions , it spewed out 40 pages of info, so it is long winded too and likes to talk too much, like showing off how smart it is. LOL

Here is another snippet from the ChatGTB when I asked this question and it gave me headline ideas that were not bad for a junior writer. I saw these as very literal, brand bias and un-imaginative versus the one I gave this piece to engage the reader. This is corporate product copy for a website at best and not for my story..
 
Martin
Q;  I’m doing an article on the ChatGPT engine and how it would impact the world. Give me some ideas
 
ChatGPT said:
Possible Headline Ideas
“The ChatGPT Engine: Humanity’s Smartest Tool Yet?”
“ChatGPT and the AI Revolution: Promise, Peril, and Potential”
“Talking to the Future: How ChatGPT is Changing the World”
Would you like help drafting a section or developing a particular angle (e.g., jobs, ethics, education, etc.)?

The conversational tone was tested with this comment by me and the ChatGTB was gracious and complimentary.

Martin
Great work. You are really detail-oriented. I'm surprised of the quality I'm getting from you. And give me some more thought of what to talk about next.

ChatGPT said:
Thanks, Martin — I really appreciate that. You've been asking smart, forward-looking questions, which makes all the difference in the quality of the exchange.

But the information was good, honest in tone, but was it factual and could it survive a good fact checking. That is where I need you help as this post will be open for comment and critique as I will be posting a series of posts on various topics around AI. Here are the questions that I asked and will be packed in 4 postings for all to see.
 


















An Interview with the ChatGTB about AI - Fact or Fiction

What is all the hype around AI
Q1. I’m doing an article on the ChatGPT engine and how it would impact the world. Give me some ideas.
Q2. I want a list of the type of ideas that's being used now.
Q3. How about the medical automated surgery?
Q4. Okay, let's be the skeptic here. Is AI just another tech fad like big data disguised?

10 years into the Future
Q1 Once AI is ten years old, what do you see the applications being once it gets out of the learning stage and becomes an expert knowledge?
Q2. Can the ChatGPT predict the outcome of horse races?
Q3  Okay, can it predict the weather then?
Q4. What do you think of AI being used for scams now, and how can we police it?

Keeping Tech Honest as it is not 100% right all the time
Q1. Math has an error rate of ±10%. How is AI going to deal with that?
Q2. How can you double-check the knowledge in the chat box?
Q3 I read about hallucinations. What are the incidences of this in the ChatBot GPT now?

AI and Digital Convergence
Q1: Part of the piece is digital convergence and what do you see in 10 years with traditional media and digital media and what it's going to look like.
Q2. Where do you see radio stations fitting in 10 years?
Q3. That sounds great, but now let's talk about magazines
Q4. Okay, now, obviously, newspapers.

I did ask this final question and the results are below as you will see it called my story concept a good idea for what it’s worth. 

Martin
This article is going to be formatted as a Q&A with the ChatGPT. What do you think?

ChatGPT said:
That’s an excellent idea, Martin — and here's why it works perfectly for your topic:

Why a Q&A Format Is Ideal for Your Article
1. It Mirrors the Real Experience
  • Readers are already familiar with how ChatGPT works — it’s interactive.
  • A Q&A captures the natural rhythm of curiosity → answer → follow-up.
  • It lets you showcase ChatGPT’s capabilities, style, and tone directly.
  • It’s not just an article about AI — it becomes an article with AI.

2.  You Can Highlight Both Insight and Limits
  • The format makes it easy to show when ChatGPT:
  • Offers detailed, accurate insights
  • Cautions about hallucinations or uncertainty
  • Gives balanced perspectives (e.g. “here’s the hype, and here’s the reality”)
  • That kind of transparency builds reader trust.

3. It Reads Like a Guided Journey
  • You ask: “Is AI a fad?”
  • ChatGPT responds with nuance.
  • Then you follow up: “What about radio in 10 years?”
  • This format keeps readers engaged like a conversation, not a lecture.

4. It Lets You Control the Structure Naturally
  • You can group it into sections like:
  • The Big Picture
  • “Where do you see AI going in 10 years?”
  • Media Futures - “What happens to radio, magazines, newspapers?”
  • Ethics & Risks - “What about scams?” Will hallucinations ever go away?”
  • Behind the Curtain - “Where do you get your data?”, “Can you be wrong?”, “What’s your hallucination rate?”
  • You get depth without needing transitions or lengthy intros.

5. It’s More Than a Gimmick — It’s a Narrative Device
  • Framing your article as a real Q&A:
  • Makes it personal (“I asked ChatGPT... here’s what it told me”)
  • Gives you space to add your voice (“I challenged it with a skeptical question”)
  • Makes the reader feel like they're part of the chat too

Want a Suggested Title?
Here are a few options for your headline:

Informative - "10 Years from Now: A Journalist Talks with ChatGPT About the Future of AI and Media"
Edgy - "I Interviewed ChatGPT About the Future — Here's What It Told Me (And What It Got Wrong)"
Conversational - "Chatting with the Future: My Q&A with ChatGPT on AI, Truth, and Media in 2035"

Let me know if you'd like help formatting the full Q&A or designing a visual sidebar that explains "How to Talk to an AI." We can turn this into a very polished, high-impact feature.

Martin 
Q I need images now for the article because graphics are very important. What would you suggest?

ChatGPT said:
Great call — visuals will amplify engagement and clarity, especially for a forward-looking piece on AI and media. Here’s a list of high-impact image ideas, broken down by section, plus suggestions on how to style or commission them.

 
Suggested Images for Your Q&A Article
1. Header Image: “A Chat with the Future”
 
Image idea:
A futuristic, glowing chat interface with a human on one side, and a stylized AI brain or avatar on the other
Transparent code or binary cascading in the background
Use for: Top banner image, article thumbnail, or social preview

2. AI Hallucination Graphic
 
Image idea:
Split-screen head or brain:
Left side: facts and verified icons (checkmarks, citations)

Right side: dream-like swirls or broken data (question marks, warning icons)
Caption: “Even the smartest AIs can make things up.”

3. Media in 2035: Side-by-Side Grid
 
Image idea:
A 3x3 grid comparing:
Radio: from DJs to voice assistants
Magazines: from covers to AR spreads
Newspapers: from headlines to voice-activated news feeds
Label: “Traditional Media → Intelligent Media”

 
4. Timeline Graphic: The Future of Media
 
Image idea:
A timeline or “evolution tree” showing how media types evolve from 2025 to 2035
Use icons: microphone (radio), camera (magazine), paper (news), chip (AI)

 
5. Chat Interface Mockup
Image idea:

So the final test was to see the image it can create, I had the AI Hallucination Graphic created and here is what it looked like. Gotta admit it is good but is a very tired boring image to use and this look has been used many times, so creative originality is limited if it exists. Stay tuned for the image I use for the actual piece.

 
 AI Hallucinations is when the the ChatGTB gets it wrong and can be as high as 30% of the time. So you cannot 100% trust the results yet
 
 
 
Monday, March 24, 2025
Gadget Blog
Martin Seto
Time for all Hosers to Stand up. Better yet Elbows Up

OMG what is happening in the world today is utter chaos. Leaders of the world are astonished as the actions of one man in his ambition to make America great again. That’s the key word “Great Again". Like the fall of any empire there is a stage of denial and history is repeating itself again. Just ask the Romans during their decline.

 
 

According to the words of Aristotle, an Ancient Greek philosopher and polymath (384-322 BC)

 

“Man is a political animal who seeks happiness by different ways and different means and so make for themselves different modes of life and forms of government. There is a struggle for power to determine who is master”

 
 Sounds familiar? Lets call it the “Trump Effect”

 

What will this chaos mean for publishers in 2025?

 

A USA invasion of Canada has happened before economically (the digital publishing industry is a textbook example). Canada's history as a branch plant economy of big USA firms, is still true today, so what's the big deal now. We are also of the hewers of wood with a resource rich country that has now become in vogue. But...

If anybody has read “The Confessions of an Economic Hitman” you know what you are seeing now is part of that playbook for world trade with Trump as the frontman, just like a movie script with Trump as the reality star president of the USA. This arrogance will be their downfall as the rest of the world will circle the wagons and give somebody humble pie.

Whatever the case there is a global reset happening and what does that mean to publishers? When you don't know the expected results yet. Typically, Canadian firms let USA companies shoot it out and partner with the ones left standing after the gunfight, but the USA is now shooting at everybody. We need to duck, bob and weave now and maybe a little bit of treachery too to survive.

 

Time to button down the hatches is the first step as the first thing that will be cut is advertising in a period of uncertainty for 3-6months. The “Trump Effect” is a new/old phenomenon and needs to be monitored carefully. The issue for Canadian publishers is that the market is already owned by USA digital giants already, so we are already screaming “ Who is Your Daddy” and the Online News Act is to remedy that. So in many respects we know what can happen to a Canadian industry dominated by USA firms. We can only guess and fear what is going to happen next.
 

 

A side effect of the “Trump Effect” is a growing trend to buy Canadian, which is a good thing with Canadian media. The CMDC has been advocating a Buy Canadian initiative “Canadian Media Manifesto” amongst their member agencies that control 90% of the media spend in Canada. This should get additional momentum in 2025. A Google Adsense and Facebook ad strike by all governments will be a great symbolic show of strength. We need government’s to stop advertising with USA media too! Here is an a Facebook ad from the Town of Whitby. Lets hope we can shame them too. https://www.cmdc.ca/cmm

 
 


Here is a local firm that is benefiting from the Buy Canadian wave. Woah Dough provides a gluten-free line of baked goods and cookies and is now the official gluten free cookie of the Enercare Centre in Toronto. https://woahdough.ca/
 Marilyn Campbell, pastry chef and co-owner. 


All levels of government are jumping on the buy Canadian bandwagon, which may be a rash decision in the heat of the moment, just asked Rob Ford, the premier of Ontario, when he tried to jack up the electricity rates for our American friends/family. The Canadian way is what Alberta is doing and that is what we should do, you don’t cut off the energy supply to your friends and family and that is what Americans are. Be kind and compassionate. Anger only makes things worse and can cause pain for generations. What Trump is doing has happened in Canada (Oka crisis 1990 in Quebec) on a smaller scale (but resulted in military action) that we can learn from.

 
 

 

Another side effect is that our Canadian identity is being challenged and our values are being tested and we are seeing “ How much Canadians love Canada” showing up everywhere, which is inspiring. The “Elbows Up” rallying cry that’s being adopted is very Canadian through our hockey roots.  “Mr. Elbows”, Gordie Howe a Canadian hockey icon that played for the Detroit Red Wings, who always went into the corners with his elbows up for puck battles. That’s right Canadians are hard nosed and ya don’t want to pick a fight with them. 
 Source: Elbow Room: “Gordie ‘Pow!'” by Detroit artist Zelley . Image: Howe Foundation

 
COPA 2025 to introduce "Best Patriotic Story"

The COPA’s want to hear more stories like this year. The COPAs this year will be introducing a new Free category for the “Best Patriotic story” that unites Canadians for a common cause. Details will be announced. Let’s show them that Canadians are a proud nation and don’t want to be American, plus face the possibility of medical bankruptcy, I had to throw this shot in, let’s call it a hockey face wash. LOL Also, you never divorce yourself from your family, cause you have a unpredicatable old uncle, that can't make up his mind. And friends are for life.

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